The 64,000 Dollar Question

When is the election going to be held?

If you ask Stephen Harper, he'll tell you 2009.
If you ask the CBC, they'll tell you October.
My sources in Ottawa tell me May.

This week has seen the CBC wildly speculating an October vote, something that, though definitely not outside the realm of possibility, seems relatively groundless.

As reported earlier, the 'fixed' election date does no such thing, and Harper may still call for the dissolution of parliament at any time, will he do it in October?

Will we see a second winter vote? Will his government only last 10 months before going to the polls again? Will he gamble with everything?

Considering the polls, the scattered and fragmented Liberal party and the popularity of his various measures since taking office, it doesnt look like much of a gamble.

I do not think it will be October personally, but anything can happen. If Harper's aim is to further smash the Liberal party, October is likely his best bet, or at the very least, before a front-runner can establish himself amongst the Liberal party. If an election is called before the leadership conference, the Liberal executive will elect someone to lead them into the election. Should they be forced to choose between a number of competing factions, then the party will go into the election with unsteady leadership, likely with a veritable unknown in the running.

Who wants an election? The Liberals are desparate to not have an election, and the Bloc want an election even less. A federal election in Quebec, which will surely result in a substantial loss of seats for the Bloc will be seen as a major victory for federalist forces, and with a provincial election around the corner, no separatist wants to see that happen.

So who will push for it? Harper likely wants one, but doesnt want 'the people' to percieve that he himself called it, as few actually want an election. Layton may want to pick up seats, but he's no fool, he knows that if Harper pulls off a majority, a lot of his current power will be diminished. At the same time though, if Layton can help break the Liberals in a quick election now, it could pave the way for replacing the Liberals as the dominant center-left party. It worked for Labour in Britain, could it work here?

So, will Harper continue in the path of the last Western Conservative Prime Minister, consolidating his minority with a massive majority? Will it be in October, May, 2009, anytime in between? I guess its anyones guess, but its largely up to Harper and Layton, and reading either of them is pretty tough.